What Members Are Reading About NVIDIA's Options Unwind, Settlement Drains, and the Dispersion Collapse
Here’s What We Covered This Week
NVIDIA earnings dominated the week — and members were positioned for it. The options model we built flagged $187.50 as the max pain, the $200 strike as the epicenter of risk, and an estimated 82% premium loss from implied volatility crush alone. The stock dropped 4–5% post-earnings, landing right at $187, and finished the week near $177. Whether you traded it or simply avoided a losing position, the framework delivered.
But NVIDIA was only part of the story. Treasury settlement liquidity drains continued to hammer high-beta assets, dispersion collapsed as correlations surged, and credit spreads on AI names widened to levels not seen since November. The pieces we’ve been tracking for weeks are now converging.
Members of Navigating the Market had the edge heading into each of these moves — with daily analysis, real-time updates, and clearly defined levels to watch.
Here’s a look at what we covered — and what members are positioning for next:
NVIDIA’s $200 strike carried 109,000 open interest and faced an estimated 82% loss from IV crush alone. The options model flagged max pain at $187.50.
NVIDIA delivered good results, but with IV above 100% and the market positioned for upside, the premium decay trade played out as expected.
Treasury settlement dates are disproportionately punishing high-beta names — NVIDIA down 32%, Bitcoin down 62%, software down 40% — while defensives hold firm. Dispersion is fading, correlations are rising, and credit spreads on AI names are widening to their highest levels since November.
PPI came in hot at 2.9% vs. 2.6% expected. Goldman Sachs dropped over 7%, the XLF broke support at $51, and credit spreads widened further — with IG hitting the upper end of its range since April. CTA flows are set to accelerate below S&P 6,800.
What You’re Missing If You’re Not a Member:
S&P 500 remains pinned at 6,800 with massive gamma support, but NVIDIA breaking $170 and CTA sell triggers at 6,800 could accelerate the next leg lower.
If you caught last Saturday’s free article above, here’s what you should know — that was just a glimpse. Paying members inside Navigating the Market receive this level of in-depth, actionable analysis every single day. Members get the complete picture — not just a weekend snapshot.
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-Mike