Extremely low implied and realized volatility suggest the equity market is more likely to grind higher than deliver a sharp breakout, with key risks tied to an eventual volatility mean reversion.
This might not be directly related to this post. But, I've been wondering about the impact of eSLR reform. I read an article that estimated that it would free up additional ~200B of capital for the big banks to buy treasury bonds. Do you think this would be material enough to help compress down the 10 - 30 yr yields?
This might not be directly related to this post. But, I've been wondering about the impact of eSLR reform. I read an article that estimated that it would free up additional ~200B of capital for the big banks to buy treasury bonds. Do you think this would be material enough to help compress down the 10 - 30 yr yields?
it will certainly free up bank balance sheets. How much it suppresses rates is hard to say.
Dreaming since Thanksgiving