Daily macro and market structure analysis—covering liquidity, options and gamma exposure, dealer positioning, and volatility—to help investors navigate price action across asset classes.
Spot on re: regime change. Bond vol is not good. Should force some pod shops to degross. Either way, higher bond yields will dampen equity returns. Also with Hormuz closed still, GCC funds might very well be forced to scale down.
Despite all the TACO chatter, I'm pretty much bearish... don't see a credible off-ramp. Quite the contrary, actually. Increasing escalation. Might just be talking my book (I'm long oil commons and calls) 🤭
Spot on re: regime change. Bond vol is not good. Should force some pod shops to degross. Either way, higher bond yields will dampen equity returns. Also with Hormuz closed still, GCC funds might very well be forced to scale down.
the biggest question remains is where does oil go
Also, appreciate the Sunday update. Hope you have a good weekend with the fam despite all the news.
Yep, oil has been the biggest influence recently.
Despite all the TACO chatter, I'm pretty much bearish... don't see a credible off-ramp. Quite the contrary, actually. Increasing escalation. Might just be talking my book (I'm long oil commons and calls) 🤭
What's your take on oil?
Even if there is a TACO, it doesn't mean Iranian plays along. Just too many outcomes to map.