Nasdaq Fails Again at 78.6% Retracement With Volatility Stabilizing

Actionable Takeaways

Key Level / Condition

The S&P 500 continues to trade in a narrow range around the 6,890 area, which remains an important zone of both support and resistance. A sustained break below this level would raise the probability of a move toward the open gap near 6,840. That would also coincide with a break of the 10-day exponential moving average and pressure the 20-day moving average just below, increasing the likelihood of a retest of the 50-day moving average near 6,800. As long as prices remain above short-term moving averages, downside risk remains contained, but that condition would begin to change if these levels fail.

The Nasdaq has now failed multiple times at its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing this area as a meaningful resistance zone. Both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are clustered near this level, increasing its technical importance. A sustained break below the 25,450 area would raise the probability of a move toward the 25,030–25,300 range. Conversely, a decisive move above the retracement would increase the likelihood of a gap fill closer to 25,900.