Markets Hold Steady Ahead of the Fed, Earnings, and Volatility Risk

MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN MSFT LONG-TERM

Markets are firmly in pause mode ahead of the Federal Reserve’s 2:00 p.m. rate decision and the 2:30 p.m. press conference with Jay Powell. With major earnings also scheduled for tonight, investors are balancing macro uncertainty with company-specific risk.

Volatility remains subdued. One-day VIX is hovering near 12, suggesting the market is not pricing in a meaningful policy surprise. While volatility could rise modestly into the mid-teens ahead of the Fed, a move toward 20 appears unlikely without an unexpected shock. That setup increases the odds of a mild volatility crush as the press conference unfolds rather than a large directional equity move.