Navigating The Market

Navigating The Market

Market Setup Signals Potential Pullback Amid Tight Liquidity

Michael J. Kramer's avatar
Michael J. Kramer
Oct 16, 2025
∙ Paid
3
2
Share

3 Takeaways

  • Liquidity Stress Rising: Short-term funding indicators like SOFR and repo usage suggest liquidity is tightening sharply across U.S. money markets.

  • Watch Key Technical Levels: The S&P 500’s 6,650 trendline and Bitcoin’s support levels could signal larger downside moves if broken.

  • Fed Nearing QT Limits: Continued Treasury bill issuance and balance sheet runoff could soon force the Federal Reserve to pause quantitative tightening.

Market liquidity has tightened considerably as Treasury bill issuance and quantitative tightening continue to drain reserves, driving overnight funding rates sharply higher. These stresses are beginning to appear in equities,

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Mott Capital Management, LLC / Michael J. Kramer
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture